Ukraine and US Fail to Finalize Rare Earth Minerals Agreement
This past Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump convened in Washington with the intention of signing a deal that would allow the US to tap into Ukraine’s rare earth mineral resources. Nevertheless, the session deviated from its intended purpose and concluded with a tense discussion involving Zelensky, Trump, and Vice President JD Vance. After Zelensky’s premature exit, the White House issued a statement confirming that the agreement remained unsigned.
Previously, Zelensky had expressed optimism that this «preliminary» agreement could pave the way for further cooperation. However, he confirmed that Ukraine had yet to secure any security guarantees from the US—one of his key demands. Trump, for his part, argued that such a deal would allow American taxpayers to «recoup their money» from aid provided to Ukraine during the war, but insisted that Europe should take primary responsibility for Kyiv’s security.
Details of the Agreement Terms
On Wednesday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Kyiv and Washington had finalized a draft of the agreement, which was released on Friday morning. The deal outlined the creation of an «investment fund» to support Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts.
Shmyhal stated that both nations would manage the fund on «equal terms.» Under the agreement, Ukraine would allocate 50% of its future revenue from state-owned mineral resources, oil, and gas to the fund. The proceeds would then be invested in initiatives aimed at enhancing Ukraine’s security, stability, and economic growth.
The US, meanwhile, promised ongoing financial support to help build a stable and thriving Ukraine, in accordance with US law. The terms of the agreement also indicated that the US would hold the largest allowable portion of the fund under American regulations.
Conflicts Regarding Mineral Rights and Financial Conditions
It seems that the discord between Trump and Zelensky intensified due to particular aspects of the minerals agreement. Initially, the US proposed a $500 billion stake in Ukraine’s mineral assets, which Zelensky declined. Sources suggest that this demand was subsequently revoked.
Tymofiy Mylovanov, a former Ukrainian minister and leader of the Kyiv School of Economics, claimed that Washington initially suggested a setup that would have jeopardized Ukraine’s sovereignty and risked economic failure. However, he observed that the US has since adjusted its position, now proposing a more equitable agreement centered on co-ownership, with no direct claims related to previous aid. He suggested that this could potentially be advantageous for Ukraine.
Trump has highlighted the financial perspective, mentioning on Tuesday that the US has given $300 billion to $350 billion in aid to Ukraine, suggesting that a minerals agreement might help reclaim these funds. Nonetheless, the Kiel Institute, a German research organization, estimates that the real US assistance totals $119 billion.
Are Security Assurances Part of the Agreement?
An important issue for Zelensky has been the insertion of clear security assurances from the US. On Wednesday, he confirmed that these guarantees had not been obtained.
«I wanted a clause on security guarantees for Ukraine because it is crucial,» Zelensky stated.
In response to queries about potentially walking away if security assurances weren’t included, he answered: «I seek a NATO pathway or an equivalent solution. Without security guarantees, a ceasefire won’t be feasible, and nothing will operate effectively.»
Despite the lack of direct security commitments, the agreement includes language indicating US support for Ukraine’s pursuit of security guarantees to achieve lasting peace.
Zelensky insisted that Ukraine would not conclude the agreement until he and Trump arrived at a consensus on security assurances and devised a way to incorporate them into the preliminary deal. Trump, on the other hand, minimized the necessity of direct US security guarantees, asserting that these obligations should now fall to Europe. He mentioned that the involvement of American workers in Ukraine would provide «automatic security.»
Zelensky initially proposed the idea of a minerals agreement as a way to offer the US a concrete motivation to maintain its support for Ukraine. Trump has implied that, in return for granting mineral access, Ukraine would ensure the «right to keep fighting,» and that the US would continue providing military gear and ammunition «until an agreement with Russia is achieved.»
The US president has also claimed that Russia is open to allowing European peacekeepers in Ukraine. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has dismissed this possibility.
What is the Timeline for Signing the Agreement?
Trump initially stated that the deal would be signed at Friday’s White House meeting. While Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal confirmed that a final version of the agreement had been prepared, Zelensky’s adviser, Mykhaylo Podolyak, clarified that only a framework agreement was set to be signed.
However, no agreement was signed. Instead, the meeting escalated into a confrontation between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office. At one point, an angry Trump accused Zelensky of being insufficiently grateful for US assistance and warned that he was «gambling with World War Three.»
«You need to finalize a deal, or we’re done,» Trump allegedly told Zelensky. «You lack leverage.»
In reply, Zelensky emphasized that «no compromises» could be made with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Shortly afterward—well ahead of schedule—Zelensky left the White House. The White House then announced that the deal had not been finalized, with Trump himself canceling the signing ceremony.
Trump later posted on Truth Social, accusing Zelensky of having «disrespected the US in its cherished Oval Office» and stating: «He can come back when he is ready for peace.»
Currently, it remains uncertain whether the agreement will be signed or when it might occur.
Ukraine’s Mineral Wealth
Kyiv estimates that Ukraine possesses about 5% of the world’s «essential raw materials.» This encompasses roughly 19 million metric tons of verified graphite deposits, ranking Ukraine among the top five suppliers globally of this mineral, which is vital for manufacturing electric vehicle batteries.
Additionally, Ukraine has significant deposits of titanium and lithium. The country also claims to hold substantial reserves of rare earth elements—17 minerals essential for military technology, wind turbines, and electronic devices—though some experts dispute the exact scale of these reserves.
Complicating matters further, some of Ukraine’s mineral-rich territories are currently under Russian control. According to Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, mineral deposits worth an estimated $350 billion remain in Russian-occupied areas.
Another obstacle to mineral extraction is the widespread presence of unexploded landmines. Experts estimate that around 25% of Ukraine’s landmass is contaminated, particularly in the war-torn eastern regions.
There is also the issue of time. Even if the agreement is finalized, it could take years before the extraction and export of these resources yield tangible economic benefits.
«These resources are not stored in a warehouse ready for dispatch—they need to be developed,» explained Mylovanov. «Should the US invest, it could eventually prove advantageous for everyone involved.»
What is Russia’s Response?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet to comment on the reported details of the US-Ukraine deal. However, on Monday, he told Russian state television that Moscow is prepared to «offer» mineral resources to American companies for joint ventures, including mining in Russia’s «new territories»—a reference to occupied areas of eastern Ukraine.
Putin downplayed the potential US-Ukraine agreement, asserting that Russia «indisputably possesses, I want to stress, far more of these resources than Ukraine.»
«Regarding the new territories, we are open to involving foreign partners in developing these areas, which have rejoined the Russian Federation,» he stated.
In the meantime, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov indicated on Tuesday that the circumstances are still evolving: «Whether [Ukraine and the US] will finalize this agreement or something else, remains to be seen. No official announcements have been made on this issue yet.»
